They say predicting the Oscars is a science, an art, and occasionally, a complete shot in the dark. Every year, film buffs (like me), critics, and casual viewers alike riot over precursor awards, industry buzz, and gut feelings to crack the code of Hollywood’s biggest night. Some years, the Academy follows the script—other times, it flips the table entirely (for example, the infamous La La Land and Moonlight switcheroo). So, how accurate were my predictions (see to the left)? Did I call the major wins, or were there surprises I didn’t see coming? Let’s break it down!
Best Picture
Prediction: Anora
This was the biggest award of the night, and while it may have felt close between the nominees, Anora had been the clear frontrunner for months.
I, of course, predicted Anora, and it ultimately took home the prize
Anora had its first win at the Cannes Film Festival where it won the Palme d’Or, the most prestigious prize a director could win at the festival. Anora then took home Best Film and Best Director at the Director’s Guild of America and Producers Guild of America awards, which are both strong indicators of Oscars success. Anora also brought attention to indie films, with a budget of only 6 million USD in comparison to other nominees’ 145 million (Wicked), 21 million EUR (Emilia Perez), and 190 million (Dune Part Two).
Best Actor
Prediction: Adrien Brody
The Best Actor race was one of the most closely watched categories this year, with several powerhouse performances in contention. While many fans hoped for Timothee Chalamet’s win to make him the youngest Best Actor winner in history, Adrien Brody took home the prize for a second time since his 2003 win for The Pianist.
Yes, I did predict this one. Adrien Brody was the clear favorite, and he did deserve it.
What’s funny is that Brody also won the record for the longest acceptance speech, running at around 5 minutes and 40 seconds, beating out Greer Garson’s speech of 5 minutes and 30 seconds.
Best Actress
Prediction: Demi Moore
The Best Actress category delivered one of the night’s most unexpected outcomes, with Mikey Madison winning for her role in Anora. At 25, Madison became one of the youngest recipients of this award, surpassing seasoned contenders like Demi Moore, who all of us anticipated to win for her performance in The Substance.
I believed it would be Moore. Everyone believed it would be her.
Madison and Moore had been competing head-to-head for Best Actress throughout the entire awards season.
Best Original Score
Prediction: Wicked
Daniel Blumberg’s composition for The Brutalist earned him the Oscar for Best Original Score. Blumberg, a British musician known for his work with the band Yuck, made a score that combined jazz, saxophone, and abrasive percussion to reflect the inner turmoil of the film’s protagonist, a Hungarian architect who survived the Holocaust.
This marks the first prediction I was completely wrong on. Blumberg’s win was somewhat unexpected; being one of the least known composers in the running. It wasn’t the frontrunner in the category, either—scores like Anora and The Substance created more anticipation.
Best Cinematography
Prediction: Nosferatu
Lol Crawley won the Oscar for Best Cinematography for his work on The Brutalist—his first Oscar win. His cinematography revived the long-abandoned 35mm VistaVision film format, drawing attention from critics.
This win, another I got wrong, was expected from the community. Crawley’s innovative use of VistaVision set it apart from the other contenders and critics praised his ability to capture the protagonist’s inner turmoil.
I believed Nosferatu should win. Nosferatu was praised for its blend of modern visual effects and homage to classical horror. However, horror films have and always will be underdogs at the Oscars (*disappointed sigh*).
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Prediction: Nosferatu
The Oscar for Best Makeup and Hairstyling was awarded to The Substance. This was another win I didn’t predict nor even think about. I should’ve expected it, though—Monstro ElisaSue was an actual nightmare and I also don’t know how they made Demi Moore look that old (no offense, it’s just great makeup!).
So, back to the title, how accurate was I?
Including the predictions I didn’t write about, that makes 9/15 correct, coming out to a grand total of… 60% accuracy! I’d say that’s pretty good. While I didn’t call every win, I picked up a solid chunk of the categories, showing that I’ve got a decent grasp on what the Academy looks for. Maybe I’ll do better next year? Read more about the Oscars wins here!
